Basil Okoh
Indirect Primaries are the forte of the deal maker, the negotiator who deals with delegates or their front man. He sees politics as deal making and is willing to offer bribes to win the deal and secure benefits and lucrative positions, while direct Primaries is the playground of the idealist, the speech maker and crowd puller who can win votes and endorsement from an impressed crowd.
Atiku is a smoke room negotiator who can always conjure cash to win a deal, political or business. That’s his background and experience, while Peter Obi is a crowd puller, a grand motivator everywhere he goes in Africa today. So between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi who will beat the other when matched in a direct primary?
The new electoral law demands that parties choose their candidates by consensus or by direct Primaries. It is far cheaper to choose and agree on candidates by consensus but when it becomes impossible to agree, parties must adopt democratic means to arrive at a choice. And that democratic means demands that every registered party member in that constituency should participate in achieving a choice in a direct primary election.
For the presidential candidates, the rule must be interpreted to mean that the party provides the platform for every party member in every state and the FCT to file out and vote for the candidate of his choice in a free, fair and internally well supervised primary election. But it’s impossible to bring every party man and woman to Abuja to file our for primary. For easy monitoring, it can be done one state or group of states at a time or all of the states and the FCT together in one day at their capitals.
Atiku may have the lump of money to bribe delegates gathered in a field or in one place for indirect Primaries to win the day, considering Peter Obi’s principled stand never to bribe anyone to vote for him. But Atiku cannot mobilize the logistics to bribe majority of the voters across the states to win a direct primary election in Nigeria’s political atmosphere of today. Although the unit sums required to bribe primary voters in their tousands will be smaller, the logistics required to reach them will be bizarre and unmanageable and Atiku will be worse for it. The money may never reach them and many will take his money and walk away to vote for Peter Obi even in his own Adamawa State.
If a poll is taken, it will be found that Atiku may only be marginally more popular than the deeply unpopular President Tinubu. He has not helped his public image by presenting himself as someone making self-serving demands and standing in the way of a far more popular Peter Obi for the presidency. People now believe Atiku has no interest in the public good by insisting on primaries and presenting himself as a virtuoso of the indirect Primaries system.
The people know that Atiku’s mastery comes from his capacity to offer bribes. There is also the knowledge that Atiku will not campaign hard against Tinubu, his old friend, after wasting money bribing delegates for primaries and winning the ticket. He is seen as deflecting and gaming the system, not minding to lose the election if he is not compensated personally. That has been his practice in five previous presidential elections he has participated in. He wins the primaries by every means, then leaves campaign funding for the main election to the party or to someone else.
The feeling lingers in the polity that Atiku himself knows that he cannot beat Tinubu in a match-up and that he is just grandstanding to blackmail Peter Obi into making concessions to him before conceding to consensual agreement. There is widespread feeling now that Peter Obi should call Atiku’s bluff and ask for direct Primaries to be held. It’s not going to be easy but Atiku has to be forced to submission.
People believe that Atiku himself knows that he cannot beat Tinubu in a match-up and that he is just posturing to force Peter Obi into making concessions to him before conceding. Out of frustration with Atiku’s procrastination, there is a widespread resignation to Peter Obi calling Atiku’s bluff and asking for direct Primaries to be held across the nation. Atiku obviously cannot mobilize the milling youth population to participate in a direct primary election across Nigeria as Obi and Kwankwaso can.
Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso already have the organizations to mobilize people for primaries, Atiku will have to organize one from scratch in the short time required. He will not have the capacity to achieve that and will lose. And that should put Atiku’s blackmail on the presidential candidacy of ADC to a final rest. It really is time to call Atiku’s bluff.
@basilokoh.
