With OBI wining South East, South South, North Central. OBI will be 2nd in South West with BAT leading in South West.
It will be head to head between PDP and APC with NNPP having above 25% in some North West states.
The RESULTS will be too close to call on 1st ballot!
Update from Situation Room.
APC/BAT extremely unpopular in South South and South East and non capable of getting required 25% votes in many of the states in those two geopolitical zones.
Religion & Ethnicity will be a major deciding factor in North Central.
Lagos is going to be a contest is between the APC and LP.
In Ogun, with most of the Pentecostal Churches Headquartered there, the Christian votes will most likely influence the outcome.
All states in the North Central, are governed by the APC except Benue. But the people of middle belt zone will vote their minds in the election.
North West geopolitical zone (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara) with 22,255,562 voters, has the highest voting strength nationwide.
The 4Ks (Kano, Kaduna, Katsina and Kebbi) alone have a voting strength of 15,805,338 which dwarfs the entire South East region with 10,907,606 votes (of which LP/PO will win the majority and achieve more than the required 25% in all states of the region.
In particular, the APC’s loss has been NNPP’s gain as the NNPP now has three senators in the upper chamber of the National Assembly.
Two of the senators who left APC for NNPP are Dauda Jika (Bauchi Central) and Lawal Yahaya Gumau (Bauchi South).
Some observers see Kwankwaso as a political heavyweights in Kano politics and the belief in political circles is that he will give incumbent Governor Abdullahi Ganduje and his camp a run for their money.
Among other states, what is obvious is that Kano is the strongest base of the NNPP.
While NNPP is expected to have a good showing in Kano, the party’s spread across the other states and geopolitical zones is a subject of political conversations.
Analysts say KWANKWASO/NNPP has little chance of winning the general election outright, given his power base is largely in the north, but could cause a serious political upset by taking northern votes from Bola Tinubu of the APC and Atiku Abubakar, the PDP’s contender.
All in all, with the leaked audio of Atiku’s alleged plot to rig the elections, and if the permutation holds, it’s going to be a close election between Obi’s Labor Party and Asiwaju’s All Progressive Congress, with Peter Obi winning the elections.
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