After Farouk’s exit, Dangote Refinery petrol supply up 64%

MaTaZ ArIsInG
Dallas, Texas

Nigeria’s domestic petrol supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has surged by about 64 percent to an average of 32 million litres per day, following operational improvements at the facility, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

Figures contained in the NMDPRA’s December 2025 fact sheet show that actual average domestic supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) reached 32.01 million litres per day in December, compared with about 19.5 million litres per day recorded in November 2025.

The jump represents one of the strongest monthly improvements in local petrol supply since the commencement of phased operations at the $20 billion Lekki-based refinery.

The increase followed changes in leadership and internal restructuring at the refinery after the exit of Farouk Ahmed as chief executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, a period industry stakeholders say coincided with tighter coordination between regulators, operators and off-takers across the downstream value chain.

The fact sheet indicates that Dangote Refinery alone contributed about 5.78 million litres per day to national domestic PMS supply in December, with overall supply performance boosted by improved refinery utilisation and more efficient product evacuation into coastal depots and through truck-outs to the domestic market .

NMDPRA data also show that the refinery achieved a peak capacity utilisation of about 71 percent during the month, underscoring what the regulator described as ‘strong capacity utilisation”to for December.

Average capacity utilisation across domestic refining assets stood at over 63 percent, reflecting gradual stabilisation after months of intermittent operations earlier in the year.

The improvement in local supply helped lift national petrol sufficiency to about 29 days in December, up from significantly lower levels in September and October, when domestic supply fell below national demand benchmarks.

Nigeria’s daily petrol demand benchmark for 2025 is estimated at 50 million litres per day, although actual truck-out consumption averaged 63.7 million litres per day in December, highlighting persistent pressure from cross-border demand and stock build-up ahead of the festive period.

The regulator attributed the overall rebound in PMS availability to a combination of increased output from the Dangote Refinery, strategic imports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) as supplier of last resort, and efforts to rebuild national inventories ahead of peak end-of-year demand.

Twelve vessels initially programmed to discharge in October reportedly spilled into November, further supporting supply levels going into December.

Aliko Dangote, president and chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, has on multiple occasions reiterated the refinery’s commitment to meet domestic petrol demand while also producing volumes for export.

“Our priority is to ensure Nigeria receives the products it needs,” Aliko Dangote recently stated. “This is not driven by profit motives; it is about guaranteeing the availability of essential energy products.”

Industry analysts say the sustained rise in Dangote’s domestic petrol supply is critical to Nigeria’s longer-term goal of reducing dependence on imports and stabilising pump prices, especially as the refinery ramps up towards nameplate capacity.

Average indicative pump prices for PMS in November hovered between N910 and N982.50 per litre across major cities, reflecting continued sensitivity to exchange rates and global petrol costs, despite improvements in local refining .

Beyond petrol, the NMDPRA report shows mixed performance across other products. Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) supply from domestic refineries remained limited, with some facilities on shutdown, while modular refineries contributed marginal volumes averaging about 0.39 million litres per day.

Cooking gas (LPG) supply, however, remained relatively strong, with domestic production accounting for more than 70 percent of supply in December.

Regulators and market participants expect Dangote Refinery’s role in the domestic market to expand further in 2026 as operational bottlenecks ease and additional units stabilise.

With planned domestic PMS supply set at 50 million litres per day, sustained performance from the refinery is seen as pivotal to closing Nigeria’s petrol supply gap and strengthening fuel security in the post-subsidy era.

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