2027: PDP faces North’s exit

MaTaZ ArIsInG
Dallas, Texas

As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once the dominant political force in the country, is teetering on the edge of collapse. Once synonymous with power, patronage, and a broad national spread, the PDP now appears rudderless—battered by internal divisions, high-profile defections, and a vanishing support base.

And while a coalition of opposition figures is theoretically forming to challenge President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election bid, internal contradictions and strategic miscalculations threaten to doom that effort as well.

For Nigeria’s political opposition, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty, and for the PDP in particular, it may be the end of the road.

Crumbling Strongholds

The PDP currently boasts of 11 state governors: Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Douye Diri (Bayelsa), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Ademola Adeleke (Osun), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), and Dauda Lawal (Zamfara). But this figure tells only half the story.

In the South, where the PDP retains six governorships, the party’s grip is loosening fast. Several of these governors are flirting with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), a trend accelerated by President Tinubu’s aggressive courtship strategy and the instrumental role of former PDP heavyweight turned APC power-broker, Nyesom Wike.

Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom has indicated that he’s on the verge of defecting to the APC. Rivers State governor Siminalayi Fubara, whose tenure remains suspended amid a fierce legal battle, is widely expected to formally align with the APC upon his likely reinstatement—part of a wider truce brokered by Tinubu that leans heavily in Wike’s favour. Fubara’s recent praise for the president’s intervention signals his shifting loyalty.

Enugu’s Peter Mbah is also said to be weighing his options and may jump ship if the political winds continue to shift.

In Oyo, Seyi Makinde is term-limited and will likely prioritize his future political relevance, possibly beyond the PDP. Meanwhile, Ademola Adeleke of Osun State faces an uncertain re-election in 2026, and there is no guarantee the party will retain the state.

“The PDP in the South is facing erosion from within,” says Dr. Titi Ogunlade, a political science lecturer at the University of Ibadan. “These defections are not just about ideology—they are survivalist moves in a highly transactional political system. Tinubu understands this, and is using the instruments of incumbency to devastating effect.”

Northern PDP Scheme

The PDP’s five remaining governors in the North—Bala Mohammed, Ahmadu Fintiri, Dauda Lawal, Agbu Kefas, and Caleb Mutfwang—appear more stable for now. However, the broader picture tells a different story.

While the governors have opted not to join the emerging anti-Tinubu coalition, most influential northern politicians, who are not already in the APC have either aligned with the coalition or distanced themselves from the PDP entirely. This effectively leaves the PDP governors stranded and politically isolated.

In the words of Kaduna-based analyst, Kabir Ismail, “The PDP might have five northern governors, but that’s about all it has in the region. It has lost the grassroots structures and elite networks that once gave it strength. The party’s national secretariat is basically missing in action.”

More damaging is the growing perception that the PDP has no clear path forward in terms of national leadership. Its perennial presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, remains a divisive figure even within the party and the broader opposition movement.

“Any serious political strategy would consider generational change and regional equity,” says Abuja-based political consultant, Grace Enenche. “But the PDP remains tethered to Atiku’s ambitions, which are no longer inspiring to many Nigerians.”

Coalition of Contradictions

Compounding the PDP’s woes is the fact that the much-vaunted opposition coalition is itself struggling to gain coherence and momentum. According to Farooq Kperogi, a U.S.-based Nigerian academic and syndicated columnist, the coalition is “crumbling before it has even had a chance to be formed.” He identifies three major factors.

First is the aspirational collision between Atiku and Peter Obi. Atiku reportedly favors a rehash of the 2019 presidential ticket, with himself as flag bearer and Obi as his running mate. But this idea is dead on arrival. As Kperogi notes, “Obi’s support base in the South would deplete considerably should he choose to play second fiddle to a northerner this time.”

Indeed, beyond his reputation as an incorruptible political figure, with his stellar record as Anambra State governor to boot,  Obi’s rise in 2023 was in part based on his status as the only prominent Southern Christian candidate. Accepting a vice-presidential slot in 2027 would be viewed as a betrayal of the southern cause and a demotion by his loyal supporters.

“Obi cannot be Atiku’s running mate again,” says Lagos-based political analyst, Ebere Nwachukwu. “His political brand is built on principled independence and regional pride. A reunion with Atiku would destroy all that.”

The second problem Kperogi outlines is the hidden ambitions of northern political figures, who are quietly angling to succeed Tinubu in 2031. For these figures, an Atiku presidency is a threat—not just to Tinubu, but to their own aspirations.

“Joining the coalition would mean delaying their own presidential bids by, at least another eight years,” Kperogi writes. “They would rather have Tinubu for four more years and inherit the spoils.”

Tinubu’s Strategy

Third, and perhaps most crucial, is Tinubu’s deployment of the bandwagon technique—a political propaganda strategy that builds the perception of inevitability around his second term bid. Through relentless defections, elite cooptation, and carefully choreographed public appearances (such as popular singer Davido’s – Gov. Adeleke’s cousin – recent visit to Tinubu at Aso Rock), the president is creating an atmosphere, where supporting him seems both natural and necessary.

“It’s psychological warfare,” says Prof. Musa Lawal, a political psychologist at Bayero University. “When you see everyone switching sides, you begin to question your own stance. The PDP and the opposition coalition are up against not just power, but perception.”

Economic Anguish, Public Fury

Yet despite Tinubu’s bandwagon momentum, his administration is facing growing resentment from ordinary Nigerians. The country is in the grip of its worst economic crisis in decades. A combination of spiraling inflation, a collapsing naira, mass unemployment, and rising insecurity has created an atmosphere of despair and anger.

Fuel subsidy removal, a policy implemented by Tinubu in his first day in office, was hailed by some economists, but has had a devastating impact on the masses. Transportation costs have skyrocketed. Food prices are out of reach for millions. Rent and utility costs are soaring. And wages have not kept pace.

In markets from Kano to Calabar, frustration is palpable. In recent months, spontaneous protests have erupted in various parts of the country. Traders, students, artisans, and civil servants alike have taken to the streets to vent their rage at a government many feel has abandoned them.

“People are hungry. People are angry,” says activist Aisha Abdullahi in Minna. “The president doesn’t seem to understand how bad things are. Every policy seems to make life harder.”

Tinubu’s government has also faced backlash for what many see as blatant nepotism and lopsided appointments, with critics accusing him of favoring his ethnic and political allies to the detriment of inclusiveness. The sense of exclusion, particularly in the South East and parts of the North Central, has further alienated segments of the electorate.

As Farooq Kperogi bluntly puts it, “If performance, competence, and legitimacy mattered, Bola Tinubu shouldn’t even be on the ballot in 2027.”

This growing public disenchantment could yet become the biggest threat to Tinubu’s re-election bid—if it can be channeled into a credible alternative movement.

An Empty-Shell

Internally, the PDP is plagued by disunity and confusion. The 2023 elections exposed fault lines between the so-called G5 governors, the Atiku camp, and other factions. To date, no meaningful reconciliation has taken place. Without a unifying leader or agenda, the party is drifting.

“It’s like a plane with no pilot and no destination,” quips Deji Adeyanju, a rights activist and commentator. “Everyone is waiting for someone to lead, but no one is ready to take the wheel.”

Worse still, the party has failed to redefine its identity in the post-Buhari era. In a political environment increasingly defined by regional pride, economic anxiety, and youth activism, the PDP has not articulated what it stands for—beyond being an opposition to APC.

“In 2023, Peter Obi offered hope to young voters. Tinubu offered structure and patronage. The PDP offered nostalgia,” says Lagos-based journalist Kemi Bamidele. “That’s not a strategy. That’s a recipe for irrelevance.”

A Path to Revival?

Given these challenges, can the PDP survive, let alone thrive, before 2027?

Some analysts say the party’s salvation lies in stepping aside from the presidential contest altogether and focusing on retaining and expanding its state-level influence. Others suggest a generational shift, where younger, non-tainted leaders are allowed to emerge.

But time is running out. By mid-2026, the political machinery for 2027 will already be in full motion. And unless the PDP can resolve its internal rifts, assert its identity, and rebuild its grassroots structures, it may find itself without a presidential candidate—or even a coherent message.

“If the North leaves the PDP to join the coalition, the party becomes a southern party,” observes political strategist Aminu Buba. “But even in the South, it will have no real support base. That’s political suicide.”

In truth, the PDP’s current predicament is not just about 2027. It is the cumulative effect of years of poor leadership, internal sabotage, and failure to evolve. If the party does not reinvent itself quickly, it risks becoming a historical footnote—a once-mighty behemoth reduced to a regional platform, or worse, a defunct structure.

Meanwhile, the opposition coalition, which should serve as a Plan B for Nigeria’s disenchanted voters, is also unraveling under the weight of personal ambition and regional mistrust. As Kperogi rightly concludes, “A coalition of politicians, who don’t offer or promise anything different from Tinubu and, who have irreconcilable asymmetries in their expectations… will have a hard time overcoming Tinubu’s strategies.”

And so, with no strong opposition party and no viable coalition in sight, President Tinubu may already be scripting his 2027 victory speech—one defection, one handshake, one bandwagon at a time.

But in a country seething with anger, despair, and hunger, a single spark—perhaps a new movement or a new face—could still change the narrative. If history has taught anything, it is that in Nigeria’s politics, four years is an eternity, and even the most calculated bandwagon can be derailed by a wave of popular discontent.

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