STATE OF THE NATION: Poverty Rates

Ben Osawe

When Democracy does not Deliver Development: Nigeria’s Paradox of high voter populations and high Multidimensional Poverty.

The 17th of November 2022 (Yesterday) was 99days to Nigeria’s decisive national elections.
As elections and party campaigns currently occupies the front burner in national conversations, debates on development are relegated to the back burner.
It is therefore not surprising that many Nigerians did not notice and/or give a thought to the outcome of the presentation of the nation’s Multidimensional Poverty index (MPI) released in Abuja.
What is Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)? Who developed it? What is the status of individuals, states, geopolitical zones and senatorial zones?. What are the implications for Nigeria as a nation? How does regional MPI data compare with regional data of voters in Nigeria? Why does democracy seem to perpetuate poverty and underdevelopment in Nigeria?
The Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) offers a multivariate form of poverty assessment, identifying deprivations across four clusters of issues- Health, Education, Living Standards, Work and Shocks. This assessment differs from the monetary assessment of poverty.
While the Global MPI uses three dimensions (Health, Education and Living Standards), the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics(NBS) in working with other collaborating parties to develop Nigeria’s MPT added ‘Work and Shocks’ in the 2022 MPI Survey. In the words of the Statistician-General of the Federation and CEO of the NBS, Semiu Adeniran, ‘this fourth dimension added other variables such as food security, water reliability, underemployment, security shocks and school lag to reflect the current realities and priorities in Nigeria’.
The Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) survey is a collaborative effort between the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the National Social Safety-Nets Coordinating Office (NASSCO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI).
The Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) survey which sampled over 56,000 households across the 36 states of the Federation and the FCT, was conducted between November 2021 and February 2022,
It’s strange that in a nation that is so resourced we are having an MPI report that says 63% of the population are multi-dimensionally poor which implies that 133million citizens lack access to health, education, living standards, employment and security. This number recorded by the MPI report exceeds the World Bank’s projection of poverty for Nigeria in 2022 which was put at 95.1million at the beginning of the year.
The MPI showed that Sokoto, Bayelsa, Gombe, Jigawa and Plateau are the top poorest states in 2022. Sokoto leads the poorest with 90.5 per cent of people in the state poor. It is followed by Bayelsa with 88.5 per cent poor people, Gombe with 86.2 per cent, Jigawa with 84.3 per cent, and Plateau with 84 per cent.
The least poor states are Ondo with 27.2 per cent poor people, Lagos with 29.4 per cent, Abia 29.8 per cent, Edo with 31 per cent, and Anambra with 32.1 per cent.
The Nigeria MPI report noted that 72% of people in rural areas were poor while 42% of people in urban areas.
The Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) report is the kind of report that you would read and weep not only for the current state of our nation but also for future generations.
Why are we weeping for the future generation? This is so because the MPI survey also has a linked Child MPI. This Child MPI extends the Nigeria MPI to include appropriate indicators for children under five, by adding a fifth dimension of child survival and development which measures early childhood development in physical and cognitive domains, including severe undernutrition, immunisation, intellectually stimulating activities, and preschool.
The report noted that 83.5 per cent of children under five years were poor in Nigeria due to lack of intellectual stimulation needed for childhood development.
Overall, 58.7% of adults aged 18 and above are multidimensionally poor, compared to 67.5% of children.
Two-thirds of children aged 0–17 are poor, and more than half of all poor people are children.
Given this picture, how can Nigeria’s future generation hold their own in global World context with all the dizzying changes emerging in the horizon? How can they compete with their peers from other developed nations?. It’s tragic that these kinds of conversations are not the emphasis of politicians seeking to lead our nation rather conversations are centred on holding on to power at all cost without giving a hoot to what happens to the nation’s tomorrows. In many political circles, conversations on the future and tomorrow are luxuries that we cannot afford. Emphasis is on today and the moment.
Doubling down on the unpacking of the MPI with a view to drawing national attention to a paradox that we confront as a nation, we now focus on profiling poverty looking at regional comparisons and data of registered voters.
The MPI report says overall, 65 per cent of poor people – 86 million people – live in the North, while 35 per cent – nearly 47 million – live in the South. In general, a disparity between North and South is evident in both incidence and intensity of multidimensional poverty, with the North being poorer.
Breaking the data further to show regional disparities, the MPI report says that the North Central geopolitical zone has 20.19 poor people, North East 20.47 million poor people, North West 45.49 million poor people, South East 10.85million poor people, South- South 19.66 million poor people and South West 16.27million poor people.
Of the ten poorest senatorial districts in Nigeria nine(9) are in North of Nigeria(5senatorial districts in North West, 4 senatorial districts in North East and 1 senatorial district in South-South).of the 5 poorest senatorial districts in North West 4 of these are in Sokoto state).
Now this is where it gets so sad, comparing voters numbers geopolitically with the level of Multidimensional poverty in each geopolitical zone.
Drawing our voter numbers from Dr Sadiq Umar Abubakar Gombe’s publication sourced from INEC we see that there are 176,846 polling units in Nigeria and 96,954,523 registered voters. This implies that we have 549 registered voters per polling unit.
The Northwest has 22,677,756 voters and 41,671 Polling Units (545 Voters/Polling unit)
The Southwest has 18,332,294 voters and 34,808 P.Us(527V/P.U)
The North-Central+FCT has 16,289,449 voters and 27,514 P.Us(593 V/P.U)
The South-South has 15,362,324 voters and 27,126 P.Us(567 V/P.U)
The Northeast has 12,801,239 voters and 24,006 P.Us(534 V/P.U)
The Southeast has 11,491,461 voters and 21,631 P.Us(532 V/P.U)
The tragedy of it all is that the Northern parts of Nigeria(North West , North East, North Central) with a total voting population of 51,768,444 registered voters houses 65 per cent of poor people – 86 million people while the South with 45,186,079 registered voters houses 35 per cent – nearly 47 million of poor persons in Nigeria
Breaking down the data further we note that the North West geopolitical zone with the largest registered population of 22,677,756 has 45.49 million poor people.
The North West geopolitical zones which is often touted as the largest voting block and makes huge boasts that it determines the direction election results swing with the poorest citizens presents a paradox . How can you have such large voting populations yet remain poor?
The question is of what benefit is political power if it does not determine the direction of development. Democracy in Nigeria generally is disconnected from development, however no where do we see this anomaly more than North West Nigeria yet citizens in the zone clamour for power to remain in the zone or in the North for that matter.
When concrete issues of economics and wellbeing are trounced by politics, ethnicity and religion this is the kind of unfortunate outcome you get.
When will citizens in North West Nigeria ask their political leaders and clerics the right questions? When will democracy and large voting population make choices that lead to development rather than in perpetuating poverty and underdevelopment?
As global population hit 8billion with Nigeria, currently the 6th most populated nation on earth with a population of 216million people and a population growth of 2.7% of what use is this massive population of poor, uneducated, unhealthy, insecure and massively unemployed persons in a dynamic globalized world context with all the emerging global complexities confronting nations?
When will issues like those published in the MPI be at the front burner of political discourses as we anticipate Nigeria’s general elections in February and March 2023?
Can the Nigerian people afford to continue to play politics of ethnicity, religion and regionalism? When will political choices be shaped by common sense reflecting a sense of rationality that moves our nation from crawling on its belly? Time will tell!
Ben Osawe* Jos Nigeria *18/11/2022