By Basil Okoh
When the 2023 Presidential election is held, Peter Obi will win by a landslide but he will not be allowed to rule or to form a government.
He will not rule because the Fulani oligarchy who hold political power in Nigeria will not accept his victory and will do anything and everything including deploying the military to stop his exercise of presidential power in the country.
The oligarchy will not accept a non-Fulani ascendancy to the presidency of Nigeria without a prior endorsement or without their own terms agreed by the ascendant president. Except of course if the alternative is the assured dismemberment and their loss of Nigeria.
In the course of this presidential campaign, Fulani will cause something to happen that will either disqualify Peter Obi or make his presidency impossible and unachievable even if he wins the ballot.
His emergence and overwhelming popularity has already defied and bemused the system as established by the Fulani High Command. Peter Obi is already an enigma wrapped in a riddle and a life threatening challenger to that establishment. Neither the Buhari Government nor the Fulani High Command presently know how to deal with the phenomenal growth and mercurial power driving the Peter Obi revolution.
The revolution, unlike other world revolutions except perhaps the Arab Spring before it, does not have a physical presence in the form of street activations which easily can be banned or controlled by police and other law enforcement. It does not also have leaders you can negotiate with, jail or bribe off the cause.
The momentum is driven by a powerful idea that has resonated since the primal beginnings of time, an idea that has created and sustained civilizations since the beginnings, an idea that has destroyed ramparts and also defeated the greatest empires and institutions that mankind has ever built, the enduring idea of liberty.
This idea is an intangible leviathan, its gossamer and phantom nature defies everything we knew before and so we cannot deal with it with the usual tools of oppression and coercion.
The idea and fight for liberty created modern France and the United States of America, two of the greatest nations on earth today. Can the enduring idea of liberty create a new and modern Nigeria under Peter Obi?
The threatening wave against the present order is so huge that no one can frontally confront or stop it. The jokester will be overwhelmed, swallowed and swept away. But the Fulani will try to stop it with the determination of a trapped tiger, not only because the survival of their hegemony is on the line, but more fundamentally because they do know that with the loss of Nigeria, their dream of empire and a territorial space for all Fulani will fizzle.
The Fulani must deploy their famed wiles or else they will be forced away from power and dominion over Nigeria for eternity.
Before now and since independence, you can only accede to presidential power in Nigeria on the terms dictated by the power mongers of Northern Nigeria, which is the Fulani. Their power has traversed and impacted every nook and cranny of Nigerian life that even educated researchers on Nigeria will be dealing with a mirage trying to figure out the reaches of Fulani influence.
The loss of that power to a Peter Obi will never be allowed to succeed without a violent challenge. In fact a life and death struggle with the Fulani High Command should be envisaged.
The Fulani does not negotiate power. They win power by violence and keep it by real threats and actual deployments of violence mixed with other forms of subterfuge. Fulani control of state power in Nigeria has given them an unprecedented control of the institutions, instruments and accoutrements of violence.
It has also created for Fulani, wealth beyond their imagination, which they are ready to deploy to defend their hold on the territory of Nigeria which they claim God gave them to keep.
In 1983, they had to quickly arrange a coup d’état to stop Shehu Shagari and a tottering NPN Government from a fortuitous handover of power to the South in 1987.
In 1993, Ibrahim Babangida, under Fulani influence and threats, had to annul a presidential election already won by Moshood Abiola to prevent power from moving to a Southerner. Abiola was eventually murdered while in government custody.
In 2003, Atiku Abubakar, a Fulani and vice president at the time, was on his way to implement a coup for the removal of Olu Obasanjo when he was stopped and caged by the more wily president.
So in 2023, what will happen to the real prospect of a Peter Obi presidency.
The answer my friends, is blowing in the wind.
Nigeria is the prize and crown jewel of Fulani violent ascendancy in Africa and they are not going to lose it to Peter Obi without the fight of their lives.
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