Osun Decides: 10 Things that could swing the Governorship Election

MaTaZ ArIsInG
Dallas, Texas

Geographic Reference

In 2022, Adeleke won Osun West with 144,558 votes, taking 53.49 per cent of valid votes cast there. His strong performances in Ede North and Ede South, his home councils, contributed significantly to his statewide victory.

Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salam 

As 1.9 million voters prepare to choose Osun’s next governor on Saturday, the contest between incumbent Ademola Adeleke, APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji and ADC candidate Najeem Salaam could hinge on a combination of turnout, regional voting patterns, party structures, security and the integrity of the process.

The election has tightened into a three-way contest despite 15 candidates remaining on the ballot. Two candidates-those of the Allied Peoples Movement and Peoples Democratic Party, withdrew on Thursday and endorsed Adeleke, while APGA candidate Adesina Adeyemi-Doro had earlier announced his withdrawal in support of Oyebamiji.

With 1,906,390 Permanent Voter Cards collected from 2,339,233 registered voters, and voting expected across 3,763 polling units, the decisive question may not simply be who has the biggest support base, but which candidate can convert that support into actual votes.

Here are 10 factors that could determine the outcome.

1. Voter turnout

The first battle will be getting supporters out to vote.

Although 1.9 million PVCs have been collected, not every eligible voter will necessarily appear at a polling unit. Turnout could therefore prove decisive in a contest expected to be closely fought.

A candidate with a well-organised base and stronger election-day mobilisation could gain an advantage even without having the largest overall pool of supporters.

The importance of turnout is amplified by Osun’s history of narrow margins. In 2018, Ademola Adeleke initially led Gboyega Oyetola by only 353 votes before losing after the supplementary election by 482 votes.

Geographic Reference

2. The Osun West battle

Perhaps the election’s most unusual feature is that the three major contenders-Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salaam, all come from Osun West Senatorial District.

That makes the district both a potential battleground and a potential source of vote fragmentation.

In 2022, Adeleke won Osun West with 144,558 votes, taking 53.49 per cent of valid votes cast there. His strong performances in Ede North and Ede South, his home councils, contributed significantly to his statewide victory.

This time, however, voters in the district have three prominent sons to choose from. The question is whether one candidate can dominate the district or whether the three-way split will allow another candidate to build decisive margins elsewhere.

3. Osogbo and Olorunda

The state capital and neighbouring Olorunda could be among the most important electoral theatres.

Both councils have historically generated large vote totals and have traditionally been important APC strongholds. In 2014, for example, former Governor Rauf Aregbesola won Osogbo and Olorunda by a combined margin of more than 46,000 votes over Iyiola Omisore.

But the old pattern has changed.

Adeleke made significant inroads into areas once regarded as APC strongholds in 2022. If Oyebamiji can restore the APC’s traditional advantage in the two councils, it could provide a substantial statewide boost. If Adeleke maintains his gains, it could offset weaknesses elsewhere.

4. Adeleke’s record versus the opposition’s campaign against him

For the incumbent, the election is effectively a referendum on his first term.

Adeleke is campaigning on infrastructure projects, agricultural initiatives, salary and pension payments and his relationship with civil servants and grassroots groups. His supporters argue that his performance deserves a second term.

His opponents, however, have attacked the administration over governance and alleged concentration of development around Ede. Nigerian Democratic Report notes that Oyebamiji has criticised the government over issues including development, payroll and education and health management. Those are  political allegations and should not be treated as established facts.

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The election will therefore test whether voters are more persuaded by Adeleke’s record or by the opposition’s argument for a change of government.

5. APC’s grassroots structure

Oyebamiji has one major asset that cannot be ignored: the APC’s established political machinery.

The party has a long-standing network across the state and benefits from its control of many local government structures. The status of the 30 local government councils has been the subject of a prolonged legal dispute, with APC chairpersons remaining in place after court decisions.

That structure could prove particularly valuable on election day, when ward-level organisation, transportation, monitoring and voter mobilisation become more important than campaign crowds.

The question is whether the APC can convert its organisational advantage into actual votes.

6. The Aregbesola factor and the ADC’s third-force appeal

Najeem Salaam presents perhaps the biggest uncertainty in the race.

The former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly is backed politically by former governor Rauf Aregbesola, whose influence remains significant in parts of the state. Reports indicate that Aregbesola’s political network could help the ADC candidate attract voters in areas where the former governor retains influence.

Geographic Reference

Salaam could also benefit from voters dissatisfied with both the incumbent and the APC.

But the same third-force position creates a strategic problem: voters opposed to Adeleke may decide that backing Salaam risks splitting the anti-incumbent vote and therefore move towards Oyebamiji.

How much of the protest vote Salaam captures could consequently determine who wins.

7. Vote-buying and election-day inducement

Vote-buying has emerged as one of the major concerns surrounding the election.

Police have warned that anyone caught buying votes will be arrested and prosecuted. INEC has also described vote-buying as a serious threat to electoral credibility.

The concern is not merely theoretical. Report claims by residents in parts of Osogbo that party canvassers distributed cash to voters, although the allegations were disputed and one party specifically denied involvement.

If vote-buying becomes widespread, it could influence turnout and voter choices. Conversely, a strong security and enforcement operation could limit its impact.

8. Security and the freedom to vote

Security could determine not only whether people vote, but where they vote and how confidently they participate.

The police have deployed more than 15,000 personnel, 30 Commissioners of Police, helicopters, drones and Mobile Police units across the state. Vehicular movement is also being restricted from midnight ahead of the election.

The heavy security presence comes amid concerns about political tension, previous allegations of violence and clashes, and accusations by the Adeleke campaign of harassment of its supporters-allegations the police have denied.

A peaceful poll could encourage turnout. Any significant violence, intimidation or restrictions affecting voters could alter participation in particular areas.

9. INEC’s logistics, BVAS and result transmission

The credibility of the election could ultimately be determined by what happens after voters arrive at the polling units.

INEC says it has upgraded its BVAS infrastructure and increased its backup devices to more than 1,300. The EU-SDGN Election Observation Hub reports that 5,130 BVAS devices have been deployed, including 1,367 backups, for 3,763 polling units.

The observers also reported that a mock accreditation exercise exposed some biometric-recognition problems, although INEC said those issues had been resolved.

Under the Electoral Act 2026, polling-unit results are to be electronically transmitted to the INEC Result Viewing Portal, IReV. The observation group has urged INEC to ensure timely and transparent transmission, collation and declaration of results.

In a close election, delays, technical failures or disputes over result transmission could become politically explosive.

10. Last-minute alliances and vote transfers

The final hours have already demonstrated how quickly the political arithmetic can change.

The withdrawal of the APM and PDP candidates and their endorsement of Adeleke could strengthen the incumbent if their supporters follow the directive.

Earlier, the APGA candidate also withdrew and backed Oyebamiji, although he is still expected to appear on the ballot.

The real value of these endorsements, however, will depend on whether party structures and individual supporters actually transfer their votes.

That makes election-day behaviour more important than the announcements themselves.

The bigger picture

The Osun contest is difficult to reduce to a simple two-way battle.

Geographic Reference

Adeleke has incumbency, visibility, a strong personal following and support among significant sections of civil servants and grassroots groups. Oyebamiji has the APC structure, federal backing and extensive  political and administrative networks. Salaam brings a significant political pedigree, an emerging ADC platform and the potential support of Aregbesola’s political machinery.

The three leading candidates are also all from Osun West, making traditional regional calculations less straightforward than in previous elections.

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