RUSSIA HAS LOST THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Basil Okoh

MaTaZ ArIsInG
Dallas, Texas

By yesterday, Russia counted over a million casualties in its war of invasion of Ukraine, a war which is subsisting on the ego of one man, Vladimir Putin, pursuing his dubious claim of Russian ownership of Ukraine, a sovereign country with internationally delineated and recognized borders and member of the United Nations.

The world looks on while Russia in the bid to forcefully take or destroy Ukraine, self-immolates in the process, destroying its own national defense and security assets, bleeding to the death a million Russian men and country while pursuing a dream of hegemony that daily looks forlorn and too distant to attain.

Ukrainians are being killed too but not in the same numbers as are the aggressor Russia who historically cannot live without destroying its neighbours. For three hundred years, Russia has been impossible to live with in peace as a neighbour. It has fought with every nation from the North Pacific to the Black Sea and the Baltic sea. Even with the Japanese that it does not share a land border, it fought a war in the north Pacific and was roundly defeated by the Japanese naval fleet in 1905. Russia still holds over a million hectares of Manchuria in Chinese territory since the forced agreement with the Qing dynasty in 1858 and 1860. From the Pacific to the Black Sea and on to the Baltic, Russia has invaded and fought wars with every nation on its borders.

Most Africans do not understand the historical context for which the rest of the world stands strongly opposed to Russian aggression in Ukraine. Russian aggression never ceases or ends and Putin’s gambit to gain the love and legitimacy of his people is to upend the peace of the entire European continent in order to be appeased with the concession of taking back the former Soviet republics which are now independent nations of their own, thereby reinventing the defunct Soviet Union.

So Ukraine fights for its survival as one of those independent nations even as it serves as a bulwark of European resistance against an endlessly menacing Russia which has a clear intent of dominance in Europe.

So while America under Donald Trump plays the flip-flop as a musical rendition of its diplomatic failures in Ukraine, the invaded country must continue to draw in America into this fight, not only to be able to sustain its cherished independence but also for giving guarantees for Ukraine to let go of its nuclear arsenal, which absence has now enabled the devastating invasion of Russia.

It is obvious after three years of warfare, that the guiding military doctrines of Ukraine and Russia are fundamentally opposed in their considerations of humanity and their engagement practices in the war theatre. While Ukraine has been targeting military personnel and military installations, Russia has engaged in unrestrained and scatterbrained bombardment of civilian targets in cities and communities across all of Ukraine. The obvious intent is to overwhelm, terrorize, subdue, and rule, a doctrine of warfare abandoned since the 19th century when Russia was itself a cynosure of Napoleon Bonaparte’s imperialist adventures.

In its war strategy, diplomatic savvy and the advanced development and use of technology, particularly in unmanned systems and aerial warfare, Ukraine is showing the world how small countries can fight big countries and succeed through asymmetric means, beginning with the strategic decapitation of opponents military leadership and governing elite. Israel has just copied this fighting doctrine by killing the generals of Iran as a prelude to consequent warfare.

The overawing drone attacks deep in Russian territory has taken the smaller country far beyond where any European army has fought in any war against Russia. Forty one priced strategic bombers destroyed, many of them with nuclear capability, stationed in far off hidden sites deep inside Siberia and others near the Pacific coast.

This impliedly means that Ukraine has redefined the war and signaled a new Ukrainian dominance in aerial warfare against Russia. The long reach, strategic planning and precise execution means that Ukraine has developed a winning attitude on land, sea and more devastatingly, in the air. The growing air dominance of Ukraine suggests also that it can no longer lose a war so previously factored on Russian air superiority and dominance.

Early June, Russia reached the terrifying mark of one million casualties on its side in a war that needs only the say so of one man to end. That the man is not saying so is a shameful admission that the world, particularly Europe, has not been able to exert the needed pressure on Vladimir Putin to let go of Ukraine. As the President of Ukraine, Zelensky continually says, Putin respects only the language of violence and pressure to let go of his thuggery and violence on Ukraine. But with the newly acquired airpower in Ukraine, countless military and security assets of Russia are being destroyed daily. On June 1, US$7 billion worth of strategic military assets of Russia was destroyed. Many destructions have followed daily since then with no respite. This is not counting the daily destructions of Russian military hardware on land and sea.

The facts on the ground suggests that Russia can no longer win this war on the battlefield. Russia has lost the war, and the longer it lasts, the more devastating its military and economic cost, not counting the cost in prestige and the loss of markets for its military technology and hardware. Russia will be devastated daily. So Russia must take the facts of its present loss in Ukraine in its stride and Putin must take the rational decision to end the invasion of Ukraine, if only for the sake of the dying warriors and his greatly diminished army.

@basilokoh.

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