AS THE HYENA GATHER IN NIGER

Basil Okoh

MaTaZ ArIsInG
Texas

In Niger America fights:

1. To secure the trans Sahara gas pipeline, an alternative gas supply source from Nigeria to Europe. Reduce or eliminate reliance on Russia for gas supply to NATO countries.
2. To consolidate control over the Uranium mines of Niger and eliminate or reduce reliance on Russian supplies of uranium to the US.
3. To secure the U.S drones military base in Niger by installing a pliable and friendly government in the country.

France fights:

1. To secure the uranium and gold mines in Niger for French perpetual exploitation. Orano, a French company owns 63.4% of Uranium in Niger and 36.66% owned by Sopamin, a Nigerien company which French investors and engineers also own and control.
2. To secure and retain the membership of Niger in the CFA monetary zone and control it’s economy in perpetuity.
3. To secure the trans-sahara gas pipeline and ensure the supply of cheap gas to Europe from Nigeria. (Bola Tinubu is a former staffer of ExxonMobil. He had a close-door meeting with ExxonMobil management eight days after swearing in).
4. To liberate Europe from the Russian Nordstream gas supply and the uncertainty and blackmail associated with gas supply from Russia.

Russia fights to:

1. Control of African mineral resources, particularly in Central Africa and the Sahel, which includes Niger.
2. Sustain European dependence on Russian gas by disrupting gas supplies from Nigeria, Africa, to Europe.
3. Make profit from waging war and controlling military power in Africa through Wagner PMC.
4. Seize control of the Uranium mines of Niger and have a monopoly of supply of uranium to the USA and the world. Russia is one of the largest producers of uranium in the world.

Nigeria fights:

1. To restore Democracy in Niger by removing the coupists from power and restoring President Mohammed Bazoum. All this to reinforce ECOWAS supremacy in the region.
2. Win legitimacy for Bola Tinubu government in Nigeria as champion of democracy in West Africa.

(A strong animal has to eat a weaker one to stay alive – Agbor Proverb)

AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN STAKES IN NIGER.
ExxonMobil is investing over $23 billion to build the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) which runs from Escravos, Nigeria and terminates in Hassi R’Mel Algeria, North Africa, carrying 30 billion cubic meters of gas annually. The natural gas pipeline passes through the entire length of Niger before terminating in the port of Hassi R’Mel in Algeria. The pipeline when completed will pump natural gas to Europe and help diversify its source of gas supply. Presently, Nordstream, a Russian Oil and gas giant supplies most of the gas needs of Europe, particularly Germany and is leveraging its gas supplies to force Europe to withdraw support for Ukraine and cease supply of armament to the Ukrainians to counter Russian invasion.

The Trans Saharan gas pipeline is planned to provide alternative to the Nordstream supplies which is being used by Russia to blackmail Europe and to achieve dominance over Europe to make Europe accept it’s territorial expansion westwards. The trans-Saharan pipeline is to reinforce gas supply to Europe and provide an alternative and viable source of gas energy. Russia’s pressure on Europe to cease support for Ukrainian resistance threatens to force change in the NATO defense fraternity and unravel the alliance. It to be remembered that Russia’s manipulation of gas supplies to Europe last winter caused a continent wide distress and Europe is desperate for alternative and stable supply for the coming and subsequent winters. ExxonMobil is investing to make the Nigerian gas supply a viable alternative to Nordstream.

RUSSIA MAKES NEW FRIENDS WITH GUNS -IN AFRICA
Wagner Private Military Company is Vladimir Putin’s instrument for gun diplomacy, using Yevgeny Prigozhin as false head. The coup in Niger and the invitation to Russia through the Wagner PMC presents a real threat by Russia to sabotage that investment. The pipeline passes right through Niger, the length of the pipeline would be 4,128 kilometres (2,565 mi): 1,037 kilometres (644 mi) in Nigeria, 841 kilometres (523 mi) in Niger, and 2,310 kilometres (1,440 mi) in Algeria. 4,128 kilometres of unguarded pipeline, which can be ruptured at any point to stop gas flows to Europe will be a surveillance nightmare to the best security institutions in the world. Russia, it appears, have found through a possible war in Niger, a way to further sabotage gas supplies to Europe.

Wagner PMC in Niger offers Russia the chance to disrupt the over 4000 kilometre pipeline in Nigeria, Niger and Algeria. This hands Russia capacity and opportunity to stop Europe from securing an alternative to Nordstream. The frustration arising from the possibility of sabotage will put Europe on the spot and force it to submit to Russian blackmail on Ukraine. This will pressure Europe to rethink support for Ukraine and help Russia bear down on the Ukrainian army, or force NATO to join the fight in defense of Ukraine. And then the third world war.

AN ORPHAN NEEDS YOUR CARE RUSSIA
The Niger coupists, already popular among it’s people, also hope to use the presence of Russian soldiers to kick France out and force it from mining Uranium in Niger. Nigerien uranium offers a lifeline for France nuclear energy investments. Uranium from Niger fires nuclear plants supplying 40% of France electricity. The stoppage of uranium supplies may threaten these nuclear power plants and disrupt electricity supply in France.

With the ouster of French lackey President Bazoum, France stands to lose Niger along with other French ex-colonies in the Sahel region of West Africa, Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Tchad, Central Africa Republic. With them will go the control of these economies along with their vast contributions to the French Central Bank and economy. The CFA controlled by France will cease to be the currency of French West Africa.

AMERICA GOES DEEP AND SPREADS WIDE
America has a military base deep in the Sahara desert of Niger. This base built for drone reconnaissance and warfare missions across Africa and the Middle East offers an isolated but ideal listening post for monitoring military threats across Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The base also complements and reinforces US military presence in the South Atlantic. The military base has much more to it than launch drones, it has for instance, undertaken military training for some African countries bordering the Sahel and has helped disrupt unwanted governments in the region.

America is the founder of al-Shaabab in Somalia which in turn inspired Boko Haram, Ansaru and ISWAP in Nigeria. The US also staged the invasion of Eritrea by Ethiopia. So both America and Russia have a history of political and economic disruption in Africa. And now, they gather as clans of hyena fighting over meat in the territory of Niger.

The arrival of Russian soldiers in Niger with the sitting military presence of the USA and France presents a dangerous possibility for superpower confrontation in the Sahel region of the continent of Africa.

ALGERIA TOO CAN PLAY
If as Algeria pledged to Niger, it joins the fight with the African resistance forces against the ECOWAS, the war will be an ugly re-enactment of the French – Algeria war of the sixties. France stands to lose so much of its soldiers and its investments in Algeria. The population of African and black soldiers in the French army are so high that it may face the prospect of rebellion fighting against an African army.

THE PRESENT BALANCE OF TERROR IN NIGER
The United States of America has 1100 well armed and supplied troops in the desert of Niger. France maintains a 1500 troop military base in Niger. Russia is bringing 2000 troops through Wagner to Niger. Russia through Wagner, also has troops in Central Africa Republic (CAR), Sudan, Congo, Mali and Burkina Faso.

NIGERIA AND ECOWAS – ENTER THE ZOMBIE

Nigeria and ECOWAS has nothing to gain or take away from any military operation in Niger. It will fight for no benefit and It will have no fighting chance of victory in an operation to invade or liberate Niamey from the already successful coup and popular new government. ECOWAS armies are not capable of coordinating operations to subdue Niamey and liberate President Bazoum alive without external help and funding. Even if they succeed in toppling the now popular government, how will ECOWAS babysit a new government in Niamey to gain peoples acceptance and loyalty?

The US Army always flatly refuses to fund Nigerian military operations because of embedded corruption and internal sabotage. Further, ECOWAS is not standing on any superior moral ground nor does it have political point to prove by invading Niamey. The Governments of countries in the union are riddled with corruption and the elections that brought these leaders to office are themselves constitutional coup d’état. Bola Tinubu of Nigeria cannot claim to have superior mandate to rule than the coup plotters in Niger.

There are no gains to contemplate for Nigeria, but there are certainly losses, of lives and disruption to the Nigerian economy. Like the everyday Isale Eko bully, Nigeria arrived the fight scene in Niger and without understanding the issues in the quarrel, joins to help pummel the underdog. This is the way of Isale Eko bullies.

It is evident president Bola Tinubu does not understand the political issues surrounding the Niger debacle, not to talk of the international dimensions that an outright fight will take. He wants only to use the invasion of Niger to promulgate a state of emergency and overcome his own governing illegitimacy in Nigeria.

Because Tinubu is desperate to continue his illegitimate presidency, he will draw Nigeria into a fight with superpowers far above our fighting capacity.

Let our soldiers stand down and go home, Bola Tinubu is not the legitimate president of Nigeria and cannot lead us to war. NIGERIA has nothing to gain or point to make shedding the blood of African people.

@basilokoh

MaTaZ ArIsInG

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